Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
